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Robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization in a scenario-based position–time–speed network

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 595-614 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0173-1

摘要： Train speed profile optimization is an efficient approach to reducing energy consumption in urban rail transit systems. Different from most existing studies that assume deterministic parameters as model inputs, this paper proposes a robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization approach by considering the uncertainty of train modeling parameters. Specifically, we first construct a scenario-based position–time–speed (PTS) network by considering resistance parameters as discrete scenario-based random variables. Then, a percentile reliability model is proposed to generate a robust train speed profile, by which the scenario-based energy consumption is less than the model objective value at

α

confidence level. To solve the model efficiently, we present several algorithms to eliminate the infeasible nodes and arcs in the PTS network and propose a model reformulation strategy to transform the original model into an equivalent linear programming model. Lastly, on the basis of our field test data collected in Beijing metro Yizhuang line, a series of experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the model and analyze the influences of parameter uncertainties on the generated train speed profile.

关键词： robust train speed profile percentile reliability model scenario-based position–time–speed network mixed-integer programming

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Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 492-502 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0172-2

摘要： This study provides a systematic overview of the advent and evolution of reliability systems engineering (RSE) in China, and the latest RSE development, that is, model-based RSE (MBRSE), is emphatically introduced. The establishment of the system architecture and conceptual models of MBRSE is first described. The fundamental theory and methodology of MBRSE are then elaborated, with a V-model as the core of this approach. The development of various MBRSE platforms and the effectiveness of their implementation over the past 30 years are presented. The prospective trends in the development of RSE in China are outlined.

关键词： reliability effectiveness model-based systems engineering reliability systems engineering

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A reliability growth model for 300?MW pumped-storage power units

Jinyuan SHI , Yu YANG , Zhicheng DENG ,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第3期页码 337-340 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0032-y

摘要： A reliability growth model for pumped-storage power units is presented. Ways for estimating and fitting on checking the model’s parameters are given together with analysis results concerning the reliability growth of 300MW pumped-storage power units. On site operation, reliability data show that the reliability growth model conforms to rules of reliability growth tendency. Analysis results of reliability growth indicate that measures taken for improving maintenance and operation by the pumped-storage power companies are effective and that the reliability of the 300MW pumped-storage power units exhibits a rising tendency.

关键词： pump-storage power unit availability reliability growth reliability prediction

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基于MCMC稳态模拟的Weibull共享异质性模型及其可靠性应用

林静,韩玉启,朱慧明

《中国工程科学》 2006年第8卷第2期页码 55-60

摘要：

针对传统假设中个体寿命独立同分布的不足，构建了贝叶斯Weibull共享异质性模型，提出了对寿命服从Weibull分布的产品，运用基于Gibbs抽样的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（Markov chain Monte Carlo，MCMC）方法动态模拟出参数后验分布的马尔可夫链，在异质性因子的先验分布为Gamma分布时，给出随机截尾条件下，参数在Weibull共享异质性模型中的贝叶斯估计，提高了计算的精度。借助数据仿真说明了利用WinBUGS（Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling）软件包进行建模分析的过程，证明了该模型在可靠性应用中的直观性与有效性。

关键词：贝叶斯分析可靠性 MCMC模拟 Gibbs抽样 Weibull分布共享异质性模型

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Reliability-based design optimization of offshore wind turbine support structures using RBF surrogatemodel

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》页码 1086-1099 doi: 10.1007/s11709-023-0976-8

摘要： Reliability-based design optimization of offshore wind turbine support structures using RBF surrogate model

关键词： RBF surrogate model turbine support structures

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基于风险分析的可靠性指标加速验证方法研究

张辉睿

《中国工程科学》 2015年第17卷第5期页码 31-37

摘要：

传统的可靠性验证试验由于一般在使用条件下进行，且只利用失效数据进行判定，往往需要大量的时间和费用。这对于高可靠长寿命船舶设备可靠性指标的验证是不可接受的。本文提出一种基于风险分析的可靠性指标加速验证方法，该方法利用退化数据进行分析，在试验风险可接受的条件下提前截止试验，得出验证结果。同时，利用高环境应力可以加速退化过程，进一步减少试验时间。本文具体给出了分析和计算提前截止试验和利用高应力进行试验产生的额外风险的方法，保证了验证结果的真实可靠。最后利用案例证实了该方法在减少验证试验时间上的有效性。

关键词：退化数据；加速验证试验；可靠性验证；风险分析；优化设计

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Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第5卷第2期页码 184-188 doi: 10.1007/s11465-010-0002-4

摘要： Maintenance management requirements have another dimension in the present as in the past. Looking for the optimal tools of decision processing is hard. The current concepts have represented the integration of theoretical, technical, and management tools whose applications need actual modification. Technical measurements are expensive and take a long time/term, and it is hard to estimate the economical returns. This paper presents the concept of a maintenance management task and its function in preventing major accidents. The importance of considering the reliability of maintenance tasks and the method to reach it are also discussed in this paper.

关键词： maintenance risk assessment failure reliability prevention

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有限资源下最大可靠性网络流中断模型

赵佳,于华

《中国工程科学》 2015年第17卷第1期页码 137-142

摘要：

提出了最大可靠性网络流中断模型。此模型是在给定的网络图中，通过在边上设置监测点来阻止给定两个顶点之间的网络流量，同时考虑所设置监测点失效的可能，在给定的资源限制下，最大化中断网络流的可能性，即给定起点和终点的网络图，在资源有限的情况下，选择一些边设置监测点使得从起点到终点的所有路都包含尽可能多的已被设置中断点的边。在给定图中，两点之间的路的条数是图的规模的指数次幂，为此将此模型转化为双层整数规划模型，鉴于双层整数规划模型在一般情况下是不可解的，通过探讨下层整数规划问题与其线性规划松弛之间的关系以及线性规划对偶理论来解此双层整数规划模型。本文不仅将该模型约束的个数从图的规模的指数次幂降到一次幂，同时也提供了一种解双层整数规划问题的方法。

关键词：中断模型；k-可靠性；对偶；线性规划松弛；互补松弛型

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An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 531-544 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0167-z

摘要： Power grids deliver energy, and telecommunication networks transmit information. These two facilities are critical to human society. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the development of reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks. The main purpose of this review is to promote and support the formulation of communication network reliability metrics with reference to the development of power grid reliability. We classify the metrics of power grid into the reliability of power distribution and generation/transmission and the metrics of telecommunication network into connectivity-based, performance-based, and state-based metrics. Then, we exhibit and discuss the difference between the situations of the reliability metrics of the two systems. To conclude this study, we conceive a few topics for future research and development for telecommunication network reliability metrics.

关键词： reliability metrics power grids telecommunication networks

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System reliability and system resilience

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 615-619 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0176-y

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Availability growth models and verification of power equipment

Jinyuan SHI, Jiamin XU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第2期页码 529-538 doi: 10.1007/s11708-019-0624-0

摘要： The general availability growth models for large scale complicated repairable system such as electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are presented. The calculation formulas for the maintenance coefficient, mathematical expressions for general availability growth models, ways for estimating, and fitting on checking the parameters of the model are introduced. Availability growth models for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are given together with verification examples for availability growth models of 320–1000 MW nuclear power units and 1000 MW thermal power units, 200–1000 MW power station auxiliaries, and 220–500 kV transmission and distribution installations. The verification results for operation availability data show that the maintenance coefficients for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, transmission and distribution installations conform to the power function, and general availability growth models conform to rules of availability growth tendency of power equipment.

关键词： repairable system power equipment electric generating unit power station auxiliary transmission and distribution installation reliability availability availability growth model

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Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 477-479 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0175-z

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Reliability design method for steam turbine blades

SHI Jinyuan

《能源前沿（英文）》 2008年第2卷第4期页码 363-368 doi: 10.1007/s11708-008-0073-7

摘要： Based on theories of probability and statistics, and taking static stresses, dynamic stresses, endurance strength, safety ratios, vibration frequencies and exciting force frequencies of blades as random variables, a reliability design method for steam turbine blades is presented. The purport and calculation method for blade reliability are expounded. The distribution parameters of random variables are determined after analysis and numerical calculation of test data. The fatigue strength and the vibration design reliability of turbine blades are determined with the aid of a probabilistic design method and by interference models for stress distribution and strength distribution. Some blade reliability design calculation formulas for a dynamic stress design method, a safety ratio design method for fatigue strength, and a vibration reliability design method for the first and second types of tuned blades and a packet of blades on a disk connected closely, are given together with some practical examples. With these methods, the design reliability of steam turbine blades can be guaranteed in the design stage. This research may provide some scientific basis for reliability design of steam turbine blades.

关键词： design reliability force probability purport reliability design

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An exploratory study for predicting component reliability with new load conditions

Zhengwei HU, Xiaoping DU

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 76-84 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0522-x

摘要： Reliability is important to design innovation. A new product should be not only innovative, but also reliable. For many existing components used in the new product, their reliability will change because the applied Loads are different from the ones for which the components are originally designed and manufactured. Then the new reliability must be re-evaluated. The system designers of the new product, however, may not have enough information to perform this task. With a beam problem as a case study, this study explores a feasible way to re-evaluate the component reliability with new Loads given the following information: The original reliability of the component with respect to the component Loads and the distributions of the new component Loads. Physics-based methods are employed to build the equivalent component limit-state function that can predict the component failure under the new Loads. Since the information is limited, the re-evaluated component reliability is given by its maximum and minimum values. The case study shows that good accuracy can be obtained even though the new reliability is provided with the aforementioned interval.

关键词： reliability component failure mode prediction random variable

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Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 21-32 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0512-z

摘要： We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

关键词： machine components reliability arbitrary distribution parameter principle of maximum entropy